World Energy Council predicts big challenges in China, India

Ministerial session in Doha, Qatar

In a report released in Qatar last month, the World Energy Council (WEC) announced that transport fuel demand in the next forty years will come mainly from developing countries such as China and India, where demand will grow by 200% to 300%. In contrast, the transport fuel demand for the developed countries will drop by up to 20%, mainly due to increased efficiencies.

The demand of the developing countries is expected to surpass that of the developed countries by the year 2025.

“It is evident that the transport sector is about to go through a radical change. The light duty vehicle sector in OECD countries will be almost completely transformed in terms of fuel mix, and we will see a pronounced shift of demand for transport fuels to the developing countries," said Prof. Karl Rose, Director of Policy and Scenarios at the World Energy Council.

"The effect of the penetration of new technologies seems to be less profound than many have predicted, mainly due to the exceptional growth in heavy transport demand,” Prof. Rose added.

Dr. Ayed Al-Qahtani, WEC Senior Project Manager of the ‘Global Transport Scenarios 2050’ project team said, “Our study reveals a particularly strong rise in demand for diesel, fuel oil and jet fuel which together constitute the bulk of transport market fuels. By 2050, the demand for these three fuels could increase by between 10% and 68%," Al-Qahtani said.

The consequences for the environment are significant. In 2010, the CO2 emissions from the transport sector were about 23% of global CO2 emission levels and emissions from cars were about 41% of total transport emissions.

WEC concludes the biggest challenge is for governments to provide sustainable transport for nine billion people in 2050, and to do that at the lowest possible social cost, i.e. minimum possible congestion, pollution, and noise generated by additional traffic and freight volumes.

The report is the culmination of over a year’s collaborative effort between a core team in WEC, 54 global transport and energy experts in 29 countries, two project partners, IBM Corporation and Paul Scherrer Institute, and the WEC member network.

Formed in 1923 with headquarters in London, WEC is the UN accredited global energy body representing more than 3000 organizations in over 90 countries. The full report can be downloaded from http://www.worldenergy.org/documents/wec_transport_scenarios_2050.pdf

Photo: Media and press gallery, WEC.